The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

For those who could read between the lines, the censored news out of China was terrifying. But the president insisted there was nothing to worry about.

Fortunately, we are still a nation of skeptics. Fortunately, there are those among us who study pandemics and are willing to look unflinchingly at worst-case scenarios. Michael Lewis’s taut and brilliant nonfiction thriller pits a band of medical visionaries against the wall of ignorance that was the official response of the Trump administration to the outbreak of COVID-19.

The characters you will meet in these pages are as fascinating as they are unexpected. A thirteen-year-old girl’s science project on transmission of an airborne pathogen develops into a very grown-up model of disease control. A local public-health officer uses her worm’s-eye view to see what the CDC misses, and reveals great truths about American society. A secret team of dissenting doctors, nicknamed the Wolverines, has everything necessary to fight the pandemic: brilliant backgrounds, world-class labs, prior experience with the pandemic scares of bird flu and swine flu…everything, that is, except official permission to implement their work.

Michael Lewis is not shy about calling these people heroes for their refusal to follow directives that they know to be based on misinformation and bad science. Even the internet, as crucial as it is to their exchange of ideas, poses a risk to them. They never know for sure who else might be listening in.

"As the COVID death toll approaches 600,000 in the US, it seems reasonable to ask how did it get so bad? Michael Lewis takes on this complex subject using his unique approach. He profiles several "maverick" doctors (in different parts of the US) with government experience in public health who early on accurately foresaw the impending scale of the COVID problem. They advocated swift and decisive action at all levels of government, using arguments based on good science and common sense. However, they encountered a wall of ignorance, apathy, and incompetence to a degree shocking in one of the world's most advanced countries. The CDC especially comes across as an abysmal failure. As a result, our decentralized system of hospitals had to cope with the chaos, confusion, and mounting death toll. On the plus side, Lewis excels in taking the reader into the shoes of the "mavericks," as they struggle to deal with politicians and bureaucrats unwilling or unable to learn the lessons from the 1918 global flu pandemic. Lewis' most compelling character is Dr. Charity Dean, who risks her Calif State public health job and career to push for effective action. This book clearly shows the tragic costs of a public health issue being politicized to such an extent. On the negative side, Lewis spends an excessive amount of time (nearly half the book) introducing his main characters, and discussing their efforts to deal with previous public health problems. In addition, this book is not (and does not pretend to be) a comprehensive analysis of the COVID crisis in the US. Subsequent books will no doubt provide additional information and perspectives. My two main takeaways from this book are:

1) The Federal government's failure to act effectively in Jan & Feb, 2020 to contain the virus doomed the US to fight a losing battle against an enemy that multiplied at an exponential rate;

2) Without drastic overhaul, the US public health system will not be ready for the next virus, which could be much more lethal."

"If you need an escape, as one reviewer wrote, then read something else.

No shortage of books out there!

As for quality of writing, well, download a sample and decide for yourself.

Unknown author? Yeah, so unknown two of his books have been made into top watched movies.

I love Lewis writing, and his topics and I almost always learn something, and get a more fuller insight of the world: in general, in ways I wouldn't have predicted."